STRATEGY & WISDOM
In a bit of a changeup this week, Rick will be leading the discussion of the Conscious Competence Learning Model, useful for understanding how and what we learn both from an individual leadership and an organizational perspective. Listen in to learn how you can apply what and how you've learned in 2014 to propel your 2015 initiatives, ensuring you are maximizing the potential of your business in the coming year.
In spite of the repeated learning and profound wisdom in the financial markets around the perils of short term thinking and the merits of long term thinking, inevitably investors still make poor decisions. Whether it is out of boredom and the lure of the shiny object, or fear that drives one to irrational decision making, poor investment decisions prevail. What can we learn from this? In this week's installment Nick focuses on what it takes to overcome these behavioral pitfalls to truly reap the benefit of good long term thinking and investment strategy.
The Federal Reserve met today to discuss among other things, whether to continue the Quantitative Easing (bond purchasing program). As we wait with baited breath on the outcomes of the meeting, we will be contemplating the implications of continued over-sweetening of the markets, or if the promise of ending QE is more trick than treat.
With major stock market averages in the midst of a pullback, I thought it would be interesting to review the risks we have seen in the markets. As of this writing the S&P 500 dropped below its 200 day moving average for the first time in 477 days (third longest streak in history). Small cap stocks have been especially susceptible (down 13%+ on a price basis since end of June). This pullback is no coincidence, the stock markets domestically and internationally have benefitted from the global experiment of Quantitative Easing. Indeed the correlation of increasing stock prices in the midst of each round of quantitative easing is unmistakable. Likewise, the subsequent fall of stock prices, as each round has ended is distinct. Therefore, with the end of QE3+ on the horizon, there is no wonder that stock prices are under pressure.
The information in this video is intended for residents of the United States and is not intended to be personalized nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Pilot Wealth Management is a Registered Investment Advisor, licensed with the State of Oregon and will ensure proper licensing or exemption from licensing before conducting business in any other state.
In an ode to Portlandia this week, Nick and Rick discuss food and in particular, the increase in food costs that have clearly outpaced wage growth this year. What does this mean to overall demand in the economy and is it a portend of broader inflation and interest rates? Listen to the discussion and determine for yourself what the implications are of the price of that free range, all natural chicken you just bought at the grocer.
In this weeks installment, we discuss the implications of the sequence of risk to returns and how they can translate to dramatically different results in the portfolio over time. Learn how restraint from the shiny object syndrome and a focus on undervalued equities can be the key differentiators to ensuring you are properly hedged for risk, in whichever sequence risk is encountered.
As recently as 10 million years ago, the Amazon river actually flowed east to west. At the base of the northern Andes, it formed a large lake that eventually flowed into the Caribbean Sea. Over time, it reversed course as the continent tilted and sediment built up. If the largest river on the planet can change directions - couldn’t the stock market?
In this week's chart review on margin debt in the NYSE and S&P, Nick discusses the implications of investor complacency in the equities markets and why this is something to pay attention to. We also refer to an earlier COTW discussion on the Perils of Prediction with regard to returns which is relevant to this week's discussion.
Rarely is our attention captured by a short term chart, however, in the following from Bloomberg it illustrates the significant appreciation in long term Treasury bonds since the beginning of the year. Not only was this unanticipated, but the opposite was the prediction from most experts. Validity of predictions aside, it does beg the question what should be done with positions that are long on bonds? Listen to the following discussion and hear what Pilot's Portfolio Manager, Nick Fisher, has to say.
If valuations actually matter anymore, and the U.S. is in fact overvalued - then what do we want to buy? This week we look at cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios (CAPE) of other foreign markets and the returns that they generate. Fittingly, we also discuss the difference between risk, volatility, and the permanent loss of capital.
Cov-lite lending and commercial loans have grown quite a bit in the last couple of years. This week, we discuss what covenant light commercial loans are, how they are made, and how the risk is mitigated by lenders. All of this of course informs our risk vs. return assumptions and the evolution of our fixed income allocations.
You can find a chart that will tell you whatever you want it to: here are a couple that we will do very little with. Pascal is famous for the saying, "All of man’s misfortune comes from one thing, which is not knowing how to sit quietly in a room." And so while we are aware of some past trends, activity for activities sake is dangerous and stupid in our mind. We will wait for a bit of volatility. And be entertained along the way.
We share some thoughts about what we believe on our Pilot’s Log and Navigating Markets including words of wisdom inspired by the greats, periodic updates about current markets and timely seasonal reflections.
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