Is Your Business Currently Worthy of Your Investment?

An annual ritual in corporate America happens each year when leaders of publicly traded companies summarize their reflections on the prior year, and outline plans for the coming year. Preceding the annual report, their letter is published for current and would be shareholders to review, and subsequently judge the merits of owning shares in the company. What if you had to write a letter to shareholders discussing the merits of owning shares in your business? Doing so may be the MOST important thing you do for your business in 2014.

On a basic level, a letter should include the following:

  1. Remind shareholders why you exist

  2. Review the strategy for the last 5 yrs

  3. Explain & Reconcile the key outcomes

  4. Outline the strategy for the next 5 yrs

The process begins with self-awareness. It may be the most critical component in understanding where you are, and therefore where you are going. I am reminded of a current client who had a "successful" distribution business. The only problem was that he didn't seem to be making progress. He considered hiring a CFO to help understand what was going on financially. He agreed instead to a facilitated assessment in which we engaged in a critical look at both his and the businesses short-comings. The assessment revealed not only a lack of financial awareness but also a lack of understanding of who controlled the value chain within his industry. As a result, he initiated a multi-year strategy focusing on how to leverage his strengths in these areas. The outcome of this strategy will nearly double his profit margins, and secure his long-term sustainability. His strategy included: a) proactively managing and gaining more control over his supply-chain, b) recapitalizing his company to reduce the risk of an economic downturn, while becoming less dependent on debt financing and c) focusing on his most important financial metrics, rather than the "cool" projects to promote his company.

A long-term view is significant as it is too easy to focus on the short-term, while sacrificing long-term sustainability and investment in the future. Most small and middle market companies have thought very little about their strategy. Most are opportunists, where they see a customer need and attempt to meet that need, taking on projects to build systems around their product or service. While this is how most companies are created, a more intentional and sophisticated strategy is critical to building a sustainable and valuable company. Consider IBM's strategy from their 2012 Letter to Shareholders:

IBM's Model: Continuous Transformation

In an industry characterized by a relentless cycle of innovation and commoditization, one model for success is that of the commodity player - winning through low price, efficiency and economies of scale. Ours is a different choice: the path of innovation, reinvention and shift to higher value.

If you understand your industry, your company's current position and resources, then you can plot a course going forward. In IBM's case, they have elected to deemphasize slow growing, low margin business sectors, like their hardware business which was formerly a huge component of their total business. Instead, IBM chooses to focus on the higher growth and higher margin business segments. An objective look at your business is critical. Often times a board of advisors, mentors and/or outside consultants can assist best with this assessment.

Understanding what outcomes to measure is vital. In our view there are three key attributes and outcomes that make a great company:

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The process of constructing a letter to your shareholders can be a very useful exercise. A well crafted letter should include a summary of all the information needed to evaluate the investment in a business. It should allow an outsider to determine the value of your business. If you cannot articulate this, your business may not be worthy of investment. Remember, we are investing considerable time and money in our businesses on a daily basis. Is your business worthy of this investment? Whether or not you intend sell your stake in your business or use it as a tool to build wealth, answering this question on an annual basis is imperative to reaching your goals.

2013 Q3 Commentary: Know Your Limits, It May Be Time To Sober Up

2013 Q3 Commentary: Know Your Limits, It May Be Time To Sober Up

One of the first investing lessons I learned was, not to lose money. Not only is it mathematically a problem, as losing 50% means you must gain 100% to return to even, but it has lasting psychological impact that can cause all sorts of opportunities for misjudgment: pervasive fear that leads to selling at the wrong time, a reluctance to buy at the right time, or buy enough, just to name a few. It is nearly impossible to foretell how we will react, therefore if one is interested in earning a respectable return (greater than the risk free return of short-tem treasuries) we must develop what Howard Marks describes as, “risk Intelligence.” It’s the investors’ job to understand, recognize and control risk. I frequently revisit informative writings in order to ensure that the compass needle is pointing in the right direction. This letter was inspired by an article that Howard Marks wrote some time ago, Risk and Return Today.

“The Fed has spiked the punch bowl. You can get drunk on easy credit and once you do you start doing things drunk people do. We’re not there yet, but we’re a little tipsy. People should start thinking about not driving.” – Howard Marks

Family Council Begins With Conversation

Family Council Begins With Conversation

When I was a kid I used to love Sunday afternoons. My parents would take us out to eat after church, usually at Chace’s Pancake Corral in Bellevue, WA. I would stuff myself silly with strawberry waffles and then go bowling or some other family activity for the rest of the afternoon.

Life was good and I figured that was how it was always going to be, until one weekend when my parents decided we needed to start having family meetings.

2013 Q2 Market Commentary

2013 Q2 Market Commentary

Having a small farm outside Sherwood and being someone interested in cultivating my green thumb, we planted a few pinot noir vines last year.

In the vineyard, vintners are often at the mercy of the climate and weather. The delicate, thin skinned, Pinot Noir grape, for example, needs a minimum number of growing degree days, but not too much, as raisins make for poor quality wine.

Both the climate (i.e., location of the vineyard), but also the weather in an individual vineyard, are crucial. So it is with investments.

Managing The Gap

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“You were wrong,” Phil stated confidently. “How so?” I asked, though I could tell where the conversation was going. I had worked with Phil and his team several years ago. With a couple dozen employees and ten million in sales, we implemented a strategic alignment of the business; a process of creating the foundational vision, mission and values along with the strategic processes to achieve the business objectives.

“Our growth," he continued. "We are achieving what we set out to do, but it hasn’t happened like you said it would.”

I don’t ever recall telling him how it would happen, but I wasn’t going to argue the point.

“When we put our plan together for how we would get there, we calculated it would take a double digit growth rate, year over year. We were on track the first couple of years, then the economy dumped and our sales went flat. Then we had a down year. We all took a pay cut to avoid laying off anyone.”

“Good for you Phil. Sounds like to you did the right thing.”

“Yeah, but my point is the goals and metrics became so unbelievable that I finally stopped sharing them. They became meaningless.”

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It was at this point that it took everything in my power to keep from telling Phil this is where he missed the opportunity—in managing the gap between the goal and the current performance.

“So, what did you do?”

“I told them to just focus on their job and I’ll worry about where the business is going.”

Phil’s reaction is an all too familiar refrain I hear from many businesses owners. When things are going as planned managing the business is easy. The truth is however, we are learning much less when business is going as planned than when it isn’t.  It’s not easy to do, especially when everyone is looking to you for answers. Rather than bailing on the process as Phil did however, there are some simple steps you can take to stay the course, as follows:

  1. Have a defined goal – As simple as it sounds, many leaders fail to clarify what the target is yet they expect the organization to perform as if they should know, or worse, as if it doesn’t matter. Don’t kid yourself…it matters!

  2. You don’t have to know all the answers – The sooner you stop acting like a problem solver, the better. Become a solution promoter, viewing problems as an opportunity to involve employees in the problem solving process.

  3. Seek small, successive wins – One of the biggest temptations when things aren’t going as planned is to look for big win. While understandable, it is not a recipe for success. Stay the course and seek small but measureable successes. A popular refrain of a friend and sales mentor, Jerry Vieira of QMP Associates is, “succeeding in business comes from doing a thousand small things right.”

  4. Be patient and persistent – Edison once said, “most people don’t realize how close they were to success when they gave up.” You are likely closer to success than you think.

  5. Don’t miss the larger moment – Whether you recognize it or not, you are modeling how to lead through challenging times. How you choose to act today will likely become the standard for the team tomorrow.

Yes, Phil is experiencing success. The larger problem he hasn’t recognized however is it is largely on his back. It is arguable whether the team has learned anything other than to keep their heads down and not ask questions. While it may have worked for Phil this time, he’s done little to prepare for tomorrows challenge. Either Phil can start working with his team to become part of the solution, or he’d better make sure he has his A-game on. It’s not a matter of if the next challenge comes, but when.

Take the time to start working with your team to manage the gap and you will create a foundation for performance that will pay off when it really matters.

2013 Q1 Market Commentary

2013 Q1 Market Commentary

The double digit stock market returns we experienced in the first quarter should give us a reason to pause. Being 48 months removed from the financial crisis, we feel investors have developed unrealistic expectations for future returns, which will ultimately lead to disappointment. Given the prospects for future gains, we should expect that dividends will make up more than 50% of domestic stock market returns over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, bonds are underappreciated by investors. This is due to the expectation of rising interest rates. In our view, investors have forgotten the benefits of the liquidity and diversification that bonds offer. Lastly, as has occurred in Cyprus recently, when small and largely inconsequential events occur to the detriment of a few, it should serve as a sober reminder of the risks we regularly face as investors, especially when risks are largely ignored.

What legacy are you leaving?

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American business is at a unique pivot point in history. With the tidal wave of retirements by Baby Boomers upon us, and the influx of Millennials beginning to shadow the doorways of businesses across the country, at no other time in the history of our economy has the potential existed for a transfer of wealth on a scale we have never seen. And yet with all the promise, the daily busyness keeps us from asking the deeper and more profound questions we as business owners should be asking—what legacy are we leaving, and as importantly, to whom? Show me the money According to an Accenture report (Jun,’12), the total wealth that will be transferred by 2045 is in excess of $30 trillion dollars. Further, according to another study by the consulting firm Fair Market Valuations, this wealth consists of 7 million companies, owned by Boomers between the ages of 44 – 62. The Family Firm Institute concludes that only 33% of those companies will successfully transfer their business to the next generation. The implication is 67% of you will not succeed in transferring your business to your kin, and will be left fighting for buyers the open market. Businesses are no different than real estate—when the supply is high, the prices are low.

Under the hood of the demographics Millennials, born between 1983 and 2001 (aka Generation Y), represent the largest demographic wave, (~80M) to enter the workforce since the Baby Boomers (~76M), born between 1944 and 1966. As many of us have experienced, Generation Y is wired very differently than those preceding it. The majority of Gen Y have never known a time when instant access to information has not been at their finger tips, and has created a culture that is demanding, ambitious and creative, yet dismissive of the hallmarks of success highly regarded by their parents. The definition of the American dream is literally being redefined and the influencers are no longer contained within our communities or even this country.

Getting to legacy Within this dichotomy of experiences and values lay both the challenge and the promise of success. I have had the opportunity to facilitate a number of family business successions and the consistent challenge in the process regardless of the industry, size of business or background, is the inability between the exiting and entering generation to define common ground. This “value gap” is further compounded by the myopia on means, namely money and control, versus the vision, values and legacy impact the family wealth will ultimately have. In our family succession engagements, (of which by the way, I do in collaboration with qualified wealth advisors. I have worked with Pilot Wealth Management, www.pilotwm.com, and have found Jason and Nick to be outstanding in their focus on creating value for the client), we focus on the big picture by asking three key questions: What legacy do you want to leave? I love this question because it is the most difficult for business owners to answer (let alone most anyone else!). Yet this is what it’s all about—creating legacy. While the dictionary defines legacy as a gift or inheritance, we like to look at legacy more broadly—the impact the wealth will leave on successive generations. The longer the impact, the greater the legacy. To whom do you want the legacy to benefit? Simply put, this is about being clear in who is being granted the responsibility for stewarding the legacy, and what the frameworks and support mechanisms are required to ensure it sustains. How will the legacy be managed? This is the leap of faith most of you will struggle with. The reality is, unless the incoming generation is given the opportunity to co-create the vision and values, you will never find peace in letting go and allowing them to steward the resources. If you are like most business owners that find all kinds of reasons not to begin these conversations, then put down the smartphone and start asking the questions. You are in a race to see who can preserve and sustain the legacy of your hard fought efforts. Don’t let yourself be left in the cold with the rest of the 67%!

Note from Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager

Note from Co-Founder &  Portfolio Manager

Living outside the hustle and bustle of the city on a small farm has its advantages. Besides making it easier to tire our two active young boys, we are also fortunate enough to have the space to grow plenty of fruits and vegetables to cook with and eat. Farming opens up a whole new world of learning, which is truly my favorite pastime.It is also far removed from the temptations and new trends of Wall Street, an absolute imperative for an independent advisor.

How to Minimize Investment Returns, The Rest of the Story

In the previous posting we discussed the ridiculous layering of fees that has occurred in the investment industry. Just what one is paying for, is often disguised through a lack of transparency, accountability and general knowledge. Most advisors, provide pretty financial plans for a fee, charge an asset management fee, broker the investment making to a third party for still another fee, and then use the financial plan to sell insurance products for, you guessed it, more fees. Despite the inherent potential conflict of interest with this model, I always find it amusing that nearly every advisor I have come across, holds themselves out as, “independent” and “objective.” For reasons that may not be obvious to someone with integrity, the law rightfully doesn’t allow for investment advisors to be compensated solely based on the growth of a client’s assets. With that in mind, it is the customers (unfortunate) responsibility to find an advisor who is truly independent and who’s only compensation is as objective as possible (ie. A fee based only on the assets under management). This contrasts with the conflicted incentives an advisor can receive for selling commission based products.

Fees, Fees, Oh Man Fees!

Transparency, and disclosure are two words that are thrown around a lot, but it has been our experience that it is very difficult to truly understand the fees that an investor pays to work with an investment advisor, money manager or even direct with a mutual fund. This is the first, in a two part series intended to shed light on the investment industry. Warren Buffett (Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway) publishes an annual letter to shareholders where he gives his view of the current investment environment, as well as the operating results of the company he has piloted for the last 40+ years. These letters are archived all the way back to 1977 and are a phenomenal source of insight. The following is an excerpt from the 2005 letter and is an interesting perspective: